Supreme Court Decision Looms: Billions in Tariff Refunds—and What Happens Next
- Schulz Trade Law
- Jan 12
- 3 min read
Supreme Court Decision Looms:
Billions in Tariff Refunds—and What Happens Next
Michelle Schulz explains what’s at stake in the Supreme Court’s pending tariff ruling and how refunds could affect prices.
In a follow-up appearance on KXYL Radio, Michelle Schulz, founder and managing partner of Schulz Trade Law, discussed the Supreme Court’s expected ruling on the president’s global “Liberation Day” tariffs.
With baseline tariffs affecting nearly every imported product—and billions of dollars already collected—the Court’s decision could trigger widespread refunds, price shifts, and yet another phase of trade-policy uncertainty.
What’s at Stake in the Supreme Court Ruling
At the center of the case are the so-called Liberation Day tariffs—baseline 10% tariffs applied broadly to imports from almost every country.
“There is a lot at stake… it looks like billions of dollars at stake here for us importers.”
Michelle explained that if the Supreme Court rules in favor of importers, those who paid these tariffs would be entitled to refunds. Because the tariffs apply so broadly, the financial implications extend across nearly every sector of the economy.
The Rush to Be First in Line for Refunds
Anticipating a favorable ruling, major importers—including Costco—have already filed lawsuits to protect their position in what could become a massive refund process.
“A lot of them are saying, ‘I want a refund, and I want to be first in line.’”
Michelle noted that refunds will likely be processed electronically, requiring companies to have accurate import data ready to submit. Even if refunds are ordered immediately, however, the real-world process may be slow.
“The refunds should go into effect immediately, but the implementation will take a while… it could be months, if not years.”
What Refunds Could Mean for Consumers
For consumers, the outcome matters because current tariffs are directly inflating retail prices.
“We have increased tariffs on pretty much anything you might buy at a store like Costco… increasing prices up to 17% on average.”
If importers receive refunds, Michelle expects price relief to follow—at least for goods affected by the challenged tariffs.
“If Costco wins, then I believe they will be bringing their prices back down.”
Why Some Tariffs Will Stay No Matter What
Not all tariffs are part of the Supreme Court case. Michelle emphasized that sector-specific tariffs—such as those on steel, aluminum, lumber, furniture, and copper—are imposed under different legal authorities and will remain in place regardless of the ruling.
“Those sector-specific tariffs are going to stay in place… they’re under a completely different set of rules.”
Even if the Court strikes down the baseline tariffs, the president retains other statutory tools to impose duties, including national security investigations and unfair trade practice laws.
“Yes, the other statutes… will all still be available to the President.”
What Comes Next: Executive Orders and New Investigations
Michelle warned that trade policy has become increasingly fluid, with frequent executive orders and agency notices replacing slower, more formal processes.
“We’re seeing change all the time, and sometimes it’s not as formal.”
She highlighted semiconductors as a key area to watch, noting ongoing investigations and growing U.S. manufacturing investment—particularly in Texas—which could lead to new tariffs under national security frameworks.
Whether tariffs are refunded, upheld, or reimposed under new authority, uncertainty remains the defining feature of today’s trade environment.
Schulz Trade Law helps importers prepare for refunds, navigate executive-order changes, and ensure tariff compliance in real time.
Trade on, but trade informed!
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