Tariffs, Refund Races, and the Growing Cost of Trade Uncertainty
- Schulz Trade Law
- Dec 17, 2025
- 3 min read
Tariffs, Refund Races, and the Growing Cost of Trade Uncertainty
Michelle Schulz breaks down refund lawsuits, Supreme Court risk, and why tariffs aren’t delivering their promised results.
In a wide-ranging interview on WLW Radio’s Scott Sloan Show, Michelle Schulz, founder and managing partner of Schulz Trade Law, discussed the growing legal and economic fallout from U.S. tariff policy.
With billions of dollars already collected, major companies racing to secure refund rights, and farmers and importers absorbing long-term damage, Michelle explained why the current tariff regime is creating uncertainty rather than leverage—and what businesses should be doing now.
December 17, 2025
WLW Radio
Cincinnati
Hosts: Scott Sloan
The Race for Refunds and a Legal Bottleneck
As tariffs continue to generate massive revenue, large companies such as Costco, Revlon, and Ray-Ban have moved quickly to preserve their ability to receive refunds if the tariffs are ultimately struck down. These companies sought to block U.S. Customs from finalizing duty calculations—known as liquidation—to speed up repayment.
That effort failed. The U.S. Court of International Trade denied a consolidated motion to delay liquidation, setting the stage for a much longer refund process if the tariffs are overturned.
“If all that has to be refunded, then it does have to be refunded—but we’re going to have to go through a long process to get that money back.”
Michelle warned that even if refunds are legally required, administrative reality means companies could wait months or years to recover billions already paid.
Supreme Court Uncertainty and a $130 Billion Problem
The potential scale of refunds is unprecedented. According to filings referenced in the interview, roughly $130 billion in tariffs has already been collected—and that number continues to grow.
Michelle noted that while the Supreme Court of the United States initially expressed skepticism about the legality of these tariffs, the outcome is no longer predictable.
“In the beginning, I thought it was pretty likely the Supreme Court would strike them down… but the more I read and follow the government’s reactions, I think it could go either way.”
If the Court invalidates the tariffs after liquidation occurs, importers will still be entitled to refunds—but only through a formal protest process that Customs is historically slow to administer.
Why Tariffs Aren’t Working—and Who’s Paying the Price
Michelle also addressed whether tariffs are achieving their stated goals, particularly with respect to China. The data suggests otherwise: China’s trade surplus continues to grow as it expands exports to other regions, while U.S. importers and farmers absorb higher costs and retaliatory losses.
“Relative to China, we can see that the tariffs really aren’t having the intended effect… China seems to be fine.”
Farmers face a double burden: higher import costs for equipment and lost export markets due to retaliation. Subsidy checks, Michelle noted, do little to offset structural damage or restore lost demand.
At the same time, U.S. companies are increasingly viewed as unreliable trading partners, as sudden tariffs, price renegotiations, and policy reversals undermine long-term relationships abroad.
What Importers Can Do Now
Despite the uncertainty, Michelle emphasized that businesses still have meaningful opportunities to reduce exposure. Reviewing tariff classifications, country-of-origin determinations, and—especially—customs valuation can uncover significant overpayments.
“We’ve had importers overpaying because they were overvaluing their goods… sometimes it’s a technicality, but that technicality matters.”
Tariff uncertainty isn’t going away—but overpayment doesn’t have to be inevitable.
If your company imports goods and is concerned about duties, refunds, or compliance risk, Schulz Trade Law can help you identify savings, prepare for potential refunds, and navigate trade complexity with confidence.
Trade on, but trade informed!
Subscribe to Schulz Trade Law for more updates.
About Us
We are a dedicated team of trade law professionals, committed to helping businesses navigate the complexities of international regulations and tariffs. With deep industry knowledge and a client-first approach, we provide clear, actionable insights to protect your interests and drive success in a dynamic global market.
Contact Us
Contact Us
Stay ahead of trade law changes!
Contact us today for guidance on tariffs and regulations to safeguard your business.
Comments